Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
