It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
